October Effect. Where Do We Go From Here?

“October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.”- Mark Twain


What a week. What a month so far. October historically has been a notoriously bad month for the market and this October has not disappointed. The October effect is a theory that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. The October effect is considered mainly to be a psychological expectation rather than an actual phenomenon as most statistics go against the theory. Some investors may be nervous during October because the dates of some large historical market crashes occurred during this month. The events that have given October the reputation for stock losses have happened over decades, but they include the Panic of 1907, Black Tuesday (1929), Black Thursday (1929) Black Monday (1929) and Black Monday (1987). [1]


For this week’s blog, I want to share three things we are doing to take advantage of the current correction:


Tax loss harvesting: Taxes can be one of the biggest expenses in retirement. Withdraws from your qualified accounts can stack up and create higher than expected income tax costs. Tax loss harvesting, is a process where we evaluate each non-qualified account for any losses created by the correction. These positions are selectively sold and replaced with similar investments. After 30 days, the transactions are reversed. We will be selective because it is not the right strategy for everyone.


Roth conversions: The key to a successful Roth conversion is to minimize the tax cost and maximize the potential tax free upside. Again, for the right situation, this can reduce future taxes, future required minimum distributions and have an overall positive impact on a portfolio.


Buy low: How do you make money when investing in the market? Buy low, sell high. While I do not believe it is time yet to begin adding more to our portfolios, now is the time to prepare for this type of action.


It never feels good when the market decides to change directions. That is why we use our purpose based asset management approach. Our approach is simple, making sure that funds are available for you when you need it regardless of what is happening in the market. It is specifically for these types of markets that we strategically add annuities into our investment mix.


As we get through the end of corporate reporting season, the next big milestone is the mid-term elections. We will see how it goes.


The economy is still moving in a positive direction and continues to grow. This is a good sign long term for the markets.


But for now, let us do our best to take what the market is giving us.


For questions, please call the office to schedule a time that is convenient for the both us.


Until next week, may God continue to bless you is our prayer!



[1] October Effect https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/octobereffect.asp#ixzz5VPzm1nUc

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